Information considered
The estimate considers GCSE attainment, chosen A-level subjects and, where available, current assessment evidence. It also takes account of independent study, attendance, study methods and access to effective teaching and feedback.
These factors are considered together. Different subjects involve different combinations of knowledge, skills and practice, but the tool does not present a league table of subjects or claim that one subject is inherently more worthwhile than another.
How to use the result
The calculator gives a central estimate and a wider grade range. The range matters because individual students, schools and courses vary. Current assessments usually become more informative as a student progresses through the course.
The most useful part of the result is often the direction of travel. Regular independent work, effective feedback and good attendance can improve an outcome that initially looks modest.
Basis of the estimate
The model was developed by Dr Torben Smith using more than 25 years of teaching and faculty leadership, including experience with ALIS and value-added information and the progression of thousands of students.
It is an expert-informed educational tool rather than a psychometric test or an official school forecasting system. Its settings may be revised as the calculator is reviewed and used.
Limitations
- Most information is entered by the user and may be approximate.
- No calculator can capture health, motivation, changes in circumstances, school policies or the full quality of a student's work.
- A-level results can move considerably after GCSE, particularly once students change their study habits or receive better support.
- The result should be treated as a guide for reflection, not a ceiling.
Further background
National value-added approaches also begin with prior attainment and compare later outcomes across groups of students. Ofqual publishes A-level outcomes by subject and subject combination. These sources provide useful context but do not determine an individual student's result.
Last reviewed July 2026.